TIM Sheens, the most experienced coach in rugby league, believes NSW will bounce back to level the State of Origin series tomorrow night, based on the "have to win versus want to win" theory.

Sheens believes there is little between the Blues and Queensland and that the Maroons reeled in NSW in game one because they began making mistakes that forced them to do more work and affected their intensity.

He believed that when the momentum changed and the game slipped away from the NSW players, they failed to respond to the challenge because they knew they still had the safety net of a home match at Telstra Stadium - in which a win would put them right back in the series - to come.

The four-time premiership-winning coach says he saw exactly the same attitude in the Blues when he coached them in the 1991 series. Then, Queensland won the first game at home, NSW the second at home and the Maroons the decider at home.

"There is one team that wants to win on Wednesday night and one team that has to win," Sheens said yesterday. "NSW has to win and there is a different intensity involved when you have to win. Queensland will have to fight against that now, if NSW get in front again. I think that if NSW get 12 in front, they will win by more than 20.

"Deep down, the players go into that first game thinking that if they lose, there is always the second game and the chance to get back into the series then. You try to fight it as a coach, but it takes away the intensity just that little bit.

"Queensland are in the position now where they want to win, but don't have to win. We had to win that second game in '91, and we did that. The home team squares the series a lot in the second game and I reckon that will happen again here.

"NSW have a great record at Telstra Stadium and I can see the intensity coming out in [Willie] Mason and his forward pack on an 80-minute basis, and not just a 30-minute basis. When it's a must-win game, you don't think about anything else. You don't let mistakes worry you."

Statistics back Sheens to the hilt. In the 12 series in which the home side has won the first game of the series and the other has been at home for the second, the home side has won the second nine times.

That includes the past five times it has been possible, and eight out of the last nine.

So, not surprisingly, NSW, who are unbeaten in 11 games at Telstra Stadium, have been backed into outright favouritism for tomorrow night's game after they and Queensland were originally equal favourites.

However, Graham Lowe, who coached Queensland against the Sheens-coached NSW, believes the trend his former rival refers to will soon be invalidated by a change in attitude he says has been ground into the players by the increased competitiveness of the NRL.

"The NRL is so evenly matched now that every game is hugely important," Lowe said. "It's do-or-die whenever they play and that has changed their mindset. They are used to stepping up all the time. You've got to have the spark to make the difference and I think Johnathan Thurston gives Queensland that spark."

Sheens said the only game of an Origin series where it can be confidently expected both teams will be at their most intense is a series-deciding third game, and that NSW can take vital momentum with them by winning game two.

"NSW will play with a finals mentality on Wednesday night and if they win, it could really bounce them into the third game on a high," he said. "They could keep going and win the series, even though the third game will be back in Brisbane."

ORIGIN'S GREAT LEVELLER

Year Game I Game II

1983* QLD win at home NSW win at home

1984 QLD win at home QLD win away

1989 QLD win at home QLD win away

1991* QLD win at home NSW win at home

1992* NSW win at home QLD win at home

1999* QLD win at home NSW win at home

2000 NSW win at home NSW win away

2001* QLD win at home NSW win at home

2002* NSW win at home QLD win at home

2004* NSW win at home QLD win at home

2005* QLD win at home NSW win at home

2006* NSW win at home QLD win at home

*Series in which the home side has won the first game but lost the second game at the other team's home ground.