Within minutes of Queensland's 30-0 victory in the second State of Origin game, a former Maroons matchwinner sent me a text message: "What's the difference between NSW and a toothpick? At least a toothpick has two points."

It's so typical of Queensland to score an avalanche of points and still want to make a point. Humility and the Maroons rarely reside in the same sentence. Furthermore, they have a consistent game plan - if they are beaten, they complain about the referee.

Invariably, they get what they want. They whined that referee Tony Archer refused to punish the Blues for slowing down the Queensland play-the-ball in the first game.

Archer subsequently blew 16 penalties in the Brisbane game, the highest in the past six years.

Each penalty kills one to two minutes in time, a significant advantage to Queensland's bigger, oxygen-gulping pack and a disadvantage to the more mobile Blues, who prefer an end-to-end game, with 2800 metres to 3000 metres covered. Origin II produced a total of only 2585 metres, the lowest since the rain-affected second game in 2003.

NSW coach Craig Bellamy conceded yesterday he was in a quandary over the selection of his team for the deciding third game because he did not know what the referee would do.

"What the referee does, changes the mentality of what myself and the NSW selectors do with the team we pick," Bellamy said.

The Blues camp sent a representative to NRL referees' director Robert Finch the evening before the Brisbane game and were assured there would be no change to the way the ruck was refereed. Yet Archer blew a penalty against NSW in only the third tackle of the game for holding down. If Archer is to punish the hold-down for the ANZ Stadium decider on July 2, the Blues pick three props. If he lets the game flow, as he did in Sydney, NSW could manage with one-and-a-half props, or Brett White and Craig Fitzgibbon.

The slippery surface of Homebush Bay's ANZ Stadium could be the key. It lends itself to dummy-half running, rather than rapid movement of the ball to the flanks, as the Maroons did on the more stable Suncorp Stadium in the second game.

An indication of Queensland's preference for Suncorp is reflected in their dummy-half running: the Maroons ran 29 times from the ruck in Sydney and 12 in Brisbane.

Queensland have two pet hates; Homebush Bay and favouritism. Their record at ANZ Stadium is poor and their state-of-the-art chip-on-the-shoulder psyche lends itself to underdog status.

Both fears were a factor in the Blues' favour in Origin I but they were missing in Brisbane, where Queensland were underdogs and were also in a "one more for the Gipper mood" for their team-of-the-century manager Dick "Tosser" Turner, whose memorial service was held yesterday at Suncorp. But now the Maroons return to the despised Sydney ice rink as favourites again.

While Maroon bleating will never change, Origin football has.

The Blues won three series consecutively when teams were kept 12 to 15 metres apart and latitude was allowed in the tackle and the ruck. Referees like Bill Harrigan kept the teams apart, while tolerating a slower play-the-ball and blowing six or seven penalties a match.

However, now referees stand back only 10 metres and, because defensive players are allowed to jump early, the gap has shrunk to seven metres. Listen to NRL referees and you will hear them call out, "Hold, hold, go", as if they are the starter of the Olympic 100 metres final. They are clearly advantaging the defensive side.

Factor in the 16 penalties blown in Brisbane and it's no surprise the end-to-end, high play-the-ball matches of the past are gone.

There were 281 play-the-balls in Brisbane, down from 305 in Sydney and well below 2004 which produced a high of 369 in Origin I. Sounding like a man who has heard more whistles than Carmen Electra, Bellamy said: "There were many stoppages in Brisbane, compared to Origin games in the past." But "Bellyache" wasn't bellyaching, graciously adding: "That said, Queensland was still too good for us."

He must come up with a Plan B in the event Archer once again blows a multitude of penalties. Should Queensland win, it will be three consecutive series victories, enough for them to pick fights, let alone make pointed jokes about toothpicks.